Economic Impact Group · LOCI® — Development
A development adds households, students, trips and calls for service on the same day it adds taxable value. LOCI® — Development runs both sides of that ledger — new property, sales and other revenue against the marginal cost of serving what actually gets built — year by year, for thirty years, on your community's own budget — with cost and revenue responses estimated from every county and municipality in America.
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$99.1M net present value over 30 years, discounted at 3.0% real.
The problem
Most fiscal impact studies a board sees arrive with per-capita averages standing in for real service costs, stabilized values standing in for a phase-in, and no separation at all between what a new household actually triggers and what the budget was going to fund anyway. A commissioner who cannot rebuild that number is voting on a brochure. LOCI® — Development was built to end that.
How it works
The community is described once. After that every project is a few minutes of input — and the answer comes back on your community, your millage and your adopted budget, not on a rule of thumb borrowed from someone else's county.
Layer 01
Pick the jurisdiction and the model pre-fills its population, housing, jobs and operating budget from public data — you add millage rates and local tax settings. County or city, incorporated or unincorporated, with or without a city school system.
Layer 02
Every use, phased by year — single-family, townhome, apartments by tier, age-restricted, plus retail, restaurant, lodging, office and industrial — with values, absorption, construction years and any incentive on its own schedule.
Layer 03
Revenue above the line, cost of service beneath it, net impact and net present value year by year — with the general government and the school district carried as two separate ledgers, and a report you can hand a commissioner.
Capabilities
Revenue, cost of service, the school district and the density assumptions underneath them — all from the same inputs, so no two exhibits can quietly disagree.
Net fiscal impact
Drag absorption, values or the mix and the whole thirty-year schedule re-runs. Revenue and cost of service move together, and the model returns the net impact and its present value — the number a commissioner will ask for first and challenge hardest.
The school ledger
School revenue and per-student cost run on their own ledger, because the district is usually the body that decides whether the project is a net positive at all.
Cost of service
Public safety, general government, public works and recreation each carry their own density factor — so the model prices what the next household actually triggers, not the county's average spend divided by its population.
Horizon
Construction ends. Absorption finishes. Values appreciate and service costs follow. The model runs the full thirty years and reports it as net present value, with the phase-in window drawn in.
Deliverables
Export the full year-by-year workbook, a designed one-pager for the packet, or a read-only link a commissioner can open on a phone without an account.
Stress testing
Unit values, student yield, absorption and density factors move independently — so when the projection is one optimistic assumption away from turning negative, the model says so before the staff report goes out.
Under the hood
Every dollar in the projection traces back to a millage rate, a budget line or an assessed value. Open any year of the schedule and follow the number home.
The cost and revenue equations are estimated from the finances of 21,600 US counties and municipalities (2022 Census of Governments) — then applied to your community's own adopted budget, so 400 homes do very different things in two different counties.
The model prices what an additional household actually costs to serve, with density factors for general government, public safety, public works and recreation you set yourself rather than a flat per-capita divide.
The school district has its own millage, its own revenue and its own cost per student. It gets its own ledger — because it usually decides whether a project is a net positive at all.
Construction years, phase-in and value growth are three different assumptions, so you can see which one is carrying the forecast and stress each on its own.
Jobs by land use, the share of employees who live in the jurisdiction and local capture of retail spending drive the income and sales tax lines — not a blanket multiplier applied to everything.
Abatement schedules and public support run on their own thirty-year track, so the net-of-incentive number always sits next to the gross one instead of replacing it.
Ready when you are
Set the community up once. Run every project after that in minutes. Walk into the hearing with a number you can defend to the board, to the press and to the developer across the table.
